The last two weeks have really turned Hollywood’s fortunes around this summer. Following a terrific May with three blockbuster sequels (Shrek, Spider-Man and Pirates of the Carribean), things slackened off quite a bit in June. In fact, not only was there a slow-down, but the season’s first major league bomb, the hideously overpriced Evan Almighty, was released. As well, Fantastic Four 2 has underperformed. Although saying it bombed would be an exaggeration, it will need to rely on ancillary sources (home video, TV rights) to break even. Still, the Studios had to have been nervous.
Then we got the summer’s first ‘original’ smash when audiences flocked to the (comparatively) economically-budgeted Transformers. This was followed by the mid-week appearance by the latest Harry Potter sequel. Like May’s string of sequels, the critics largely considered it less impressive than previous chapters, and also like May’s string of sequels, audiences didn’t appear to care very much.
Budgeted again at a comparatively modest $150*m (compared with the third chapters of Spider-Man and Pirates, both costing in the area of $300m), Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix conjured up (sorry) a magical (really; very, very sorry) $77m over the weekend, which added to its mid-week take added up to a monstrous $140m, the sixth highest five-day take on record. This beat the previous Potter record of $120m by Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. It should be noted, however, that all the previous Potter movies opened on a Friday, so that’s an inexact comparison.
[Actually, other sources put the budget closer to $200, which is still a bargain all things considered.]
Meanwhile, the film also has already raked in an additional $190m over the same period, meaning that at $330m worldwide in less than a week, the film is *already* functionally in the black. And even if the higher budget figure quoted above is correct, the film will be hitting the breakeven point in another day or two. Obviously it looks to be another huge money-maker for Warner’s.
Also already in profit territory is the number two picture, Transformers. Despite the Harry Potter onslaught (and the fact that Potter ate up a gigantic 4,300 screens nationwide), Transformers held well for a summer blockbuster, dropping only 49% from its opening weekend. Adding another $36m to its take, the film has earned a more than impressive $223m stateside, along with another $146m in foreign coin. The film is now officially the biggest hit ever for the oft-derided director Michael Bay, and a sequel is surely in the works.
The other major releases held well, also. Third place went to Pixar’s Ratatouille, which slipped only 38% from the previous frame, and now stands at a robust, if not record-breaking, $143m. With kiddie fare sparse, the film could sneak its way up to the $200m mark when all is said and done. However, as of yet it has only added another $18m in foreign take.
Falling 39% was Live Free or Die Hard, which took in an additional $11m, for a total take of $102m. Given its $110m budget, the additional $91m it has taken overseas means that it is nearing the break-even point (since the studio gets about half the take), the film looks to make a decent amount, but can’t really be considered a huge hit.
License to Wed, a typically appalling-looking Robin Williams comedy, dropped only 29% to bring in another $7.4m, for a total take of just over $30m. However, it has not been released at all overseas, and given how comedies translate in foreign markets, it might not be. This one will probably be relying on ancillary revenue sources to turn any sort of profit.
Meanwhile, horror flick 1408 scared up another $5m to go to $62m total. Again, this has not been released overseas as of yet. With a modest $25m budget, this will end up turning a nice piece of coin in the end, albeit obviously shy of the bigger movies mentioned above.
On the other hand, the movie really scaring Hollywood is the season’s one certified megabomb, Evan Almighty. It added nearly another $5m, but only has boarded $87m for a rainy day. With a paltry $4.3m in foreign take added in, this one has pretty much already sunk beneath the waves, courtesy of its moronically large budget. Needing in the area of $350m before it would break even, the film has turned a worldwide total of $92.2m so far, and is largely spent.
So while the comparatively unsatisfying nature of the films doesn’t appear to have harmed things too much, it should be noted that all the sequels this summer (although it’s too soon to say this for Potter) made less than their preceding chapters, at least domestically. These lags range from 6% for Ocean’s Thirteen to 10% (Spider-Man 3), 25% (Shrek and Pirates 3), and, of course, 55% for Evan Almighty, which also cost over double the amount to make as the first film.
Luckily, next summer’s movies seem like they might actually be a better slate of films, and that never hurts.
