The (comparative) summer BO doldrums continue. We’ll just have to see if Transformers wakes things up, but I certainly wouldn’t count on it. Especially giving the reviews. Here’s the thing, you don’t have to make a good movie to make money (obviously), and making a good movie doesn’t necessarily mean it will make money (obviously). Here’s the thing, though: All other factors being equal, it never hurts to make an actually good film. Think of how much money the, say, TriStar Godzilla film could have made if it were good enough to draw audiences back for a second showing.
That’s really what we’re talking about here. Movies can make a lot of cash that first weekend. However, the true blockbusters inspire repeat viewings. When you love a movie so much on opening night that you talk it up to all your friends, and even tell them, “Let’s see it tonight; I wouldn’t mind seeing it again,” that’s when you got something. I did exactly that, back in the day, with Raiders of the Lost Ark. (Many of my friends on opening night had gone to see Clash of the Titans instead. I organized a big group to see Raiders the next night. It might be weird to think of it, but Raiders had a much lower profile on the radar than Titans did that opening weekend.)
The thing is, although the teen crowd will go out and see movies pretty reflexively, just to get out of the house and hang out with their friends, even there they can get worn down by seeing too many lame films in succession. And I don’t think anything this year has really completely thrilled people. Pirates and Spider-Man I think were generally considered better than average, but most of the rest of the summer slate this far has been pretty underwhelming. Last weekend’s disastrous first-place opening for the inordinately expensive Evan Almighty was definitely a signal of that.
Things rebounded a bit this last weekend, but only to a certain extent. Pixar again had the number one films in Ratatouille, which copped a healthy if not spectacular $48m this weekend. (As opposed to last weekend’s first place film, Evan Almighty, which only draw about $31m.) Even so, and despite spectacular reviews, that’s the lowest opening for a Pixar film since A Bug’s Life way back in 1998. Even Cars drew $60m its first weekend, much less than the roughly $70m drawn by both The Incredibles and Finding Nemo.
Still, Pixar’s movies generally have pretty good legs, and there’s no doubt the film will do well, if not astoundingly well. And they do tend to do well overseas, so nobody should weep for them or anything.
Second place went to the fun and generally well-received Live Free or Die Hard, which reaped a solid $33m over the weekend, and nearly $50m since it opened during the mid-week. Again, action films do well overseas, and Willis is still a name to be reckoned with in foreign markets. Die Hard With a Vengeance, for instance, made a stupefying 72% percent of its worldwide take overseas. So all in all, the latest (and second best) chapter in the John McClane saga should do well, especially given its comparatively modest $110m production budget. (Which, amazingly, is a good $65m to $90m less than the cost of Evan Almighty, depending on whose figures you trust.)
Speaking of, Evan fell two spots to number three, drawing about $15m. That’s not a huge drop-off these days, down about 52% from last week, but that first weekend was soft. With $60m stowed aboard, this might strike land at about $100m at best, and remember the studios will only get about half of that figure. Again, for a movie that cost $175-200m, plus prints and advertising…youtch. Not good. And it’s hard to imagine it drawing all that much overseas, either. This pretty much has to be considered the summer’s biggest bomb so far, and will probably keep that crown by the time fall rolls around.
I don’t mean to harp on Evan’s huge production budget—oh, yeah, I guess I do. Good grief, Die Hard 4 cost only $110m, and even Transformers cost $150m. Admittedly, Spider-Man 3 ($260m) and Pirates 3 ($300m) cost even more. However, each of those films is going to draw nearly a billion dollars at the worldwide box office.
The much more modestly budget spook movie 1408 dropped a nice soft 49%, and scared up another $10.6m. That gives it a pretty solid $40m so far.
Fantastic Four 2 banked another $9m this weekend, for a blah $115m so far. Again, overseas grosses should help, but like the first movie this will be (at best) a modest moneymaker. They really screwed the pooch on this series, I think. Thank heavens that the people behind next year’s Iron Man seem so much more on the stick. Suggestion: If they bother making a third Fantastic Four, and I’d say that was dicey, dump director Tim Storey, who hasn’t really brought much to the table for the first two films.
Pretty much the only big comedy this summer, Knocked Up fell only 32% to deliver another $7.5m, for a total of about $122m. Of course, since the production budget was $30m, they made some major coin with this already.
Ocean’s Thirteen made about $6m, for a domestic total of $102m. It’s also made another $125m overseas. Still, for a film with that many stars, this is a middling result, although it made more than the second film.
Pirates 3 looted another $5m, down only $30 from last week. It should cross the $300m line domestically pretty soon, and has drawn a boggling $900m plus worldwide. Given this, it has passed Spider-Man 3 as the year’s biggest earner (and which fell out of the top ten this week). Still, with that film making $880m so far, I don’t think they’re really that concerned. Shrek 3 also fell out of the top ten, but has already made over $500m worldwide, and has yet to open in a lot of foreign markets.
All in all, given the big three ‘3’s this year, the summer has been up a goodly amount over last year, over 30% in fact. However, things seem to be quieting down, so we’ll see what the final summer figures are like once fall arrives.
