The two or three people who actually read my blog entries on the coming demise of the traditional network television model–a model fashioned in the days when there was actually a mass culture, one all but defined by what was shown on the big three networks–know that I have pondering what changes we might see. Now we’ve gotten the first biggie.
NBC a few years ago, fearing to lose the (comparatively) young Conan O’Brien to a competing network, made a deal that would see the (by today’s standards) hugely Jay Leno retire from The Tonight Show and have O’Brien take over the gig as of May 2009. NBC’s prime motive, surely, was to avoid another incident like the infamous Leno/Letterman brouhaha that saw Letterman go over to CBS.
Sadly, rumblings some while ago started on an emimently foreseeable problem: The legendarily hard-working Leno has decided he doesn’t want to retire. NBC was bruised by the Letterman defection, but in the end Leno consistantly retained the higher ratings. However, what if Leno set up shop at another network. Worst case scenario, he retains first place and destroys O’Brien in the ratings, and NBC loses a lot of dough and gets some major egg on its face. Best case, the limited audience for such shows is further split by Leno’s presense, meaning that O’Brien is still overshadowed even if he sustains halfway decent ratings.
On top of this, we get back to the problem of how the networks, especially the Big Three with their three hours of programming each night compared to Fox’s and CW’s two, can sustain themselves in a world with so many entertainment options. Some have predicted that one or more of the Big Three might actually cut back to two hours of programming themselves. NBC hasn’t gone quite that far, but they’ve made the first step in that direction.
Rather than lose Leno, they have basically offered him another five times a week The Tonight Show (albeit not with that title), only in prime time. Instead of battling Letterman, Leno will be up against CSI: Miami and other primetime programming. This is a HUGE shift in strategy, quite possibly the biggest such in the history of the Big Three networks. It will be interesting to see what happens. Even if the experiment fails (and it would truly have to tank for NBC to quickly admit their folly by cancelling it), it points to the general desperation the networks are feeling these days.
