This last weekend definitely saw the summer BO totals cooling, presumably as a result of a raft of underwhelming films. Momentum carried the early, most eagerly awaited sequels, the third parts of the popular Spider-Man, Pirates of the Caribbean and Shrek franchises, which were all released without four weeks of one another. However, the general consensus was that none of the above were entirely satisfying. Next came the second Fantastic Four movie. The first entry was considered by most to be mediocre (or worse), but that actually raised expectations for t he second movie. It was hoped by many that the sequel would take advantage of the situation and prove an improvement on the first movie. Reviews indicate that this was not to be the case. (Myself, I haven’t seen the movie yet.) The sequel made slightly more money than its predecessor in the first weekend—although raised ticket prices may have accounted for much of the difference—but by the second weekend the film was already making less than the first film at the same point in its release.
With only the critically acclaimed Knocked Up cornering the comedy market, things looked good for last weekend’s Evan Almighty, a quasi-sequel to a previous hit movie (Bruce Almighty) and a film that seemed a good bet to tap into the family, special effects comedy market that made Tim Allen’s The Santa Clause series a success. Evan also had the advantage of starring a comedian on the rise, Steve Carell, but whose paycheck would be significantly less than that of the first film’s star, Jim Carrey.
On the surface, last weekend seemed a good one for Evan. Despite yet another round of bad reviews, It opened in first place with about $31m. However, soon the astounding work came out that Evan had astoundingly cost even more to produce than the Jim Carrey-headed Bruce Almighty. Apparently production delays mated with a set in stone release date forced the producers to overpay to get all the effects work done by the stipulated release. In the end, Evan reportedly cost between $175-200m. This was more, for instance, than Fantastic Four 2 cost.
Thus the fact that the more expensive sequel accrued less than half the box office tally Bruce’s opening $68m in 2003 dollars (for those who wonder why Carrey still commands the salaries he does) is ominous. Films now often actually make half or more of their overall box office tally the first weekend. Assuming a not even that dire (by today’s standards) 50% drop-off next week, it’s hard to see Evan making even $75m in total, with the studio claiming maybe $40m of that. And again, that’s almost a best case scenario at this point.Moreover, Comedies tend not to do as well overseas as action films. Spider-Man 3 made less domestically than the first two chapters, but more than either overseas, for instance, and thus is the series biggest earner overall. However, even with cable rights and DVD and such, it seems likely Evan will end up one of the year’s biggest bombs.
Meanwhile, the fairly well-reviewed Stephen King horror flick 1408, starring John Cusack and Samuel L. Jackson, opened in second with a tidy $23.4m. The biggest difference is that its production budget was about $25m, or roughly an eighth of what Evan Almighty cost. Horror always sells strongly on DVD, and this film appears like it will turn a nice profit.
Meanwhile, it’s possible that the strong opening for the PG-13 terror pic—along with the $22m opening of the earlier Disturbia—means that people are finally getting bored with the recent string of ‘torture porn’, gory R rated films.* Despite strong reviews, Hostel II opened poorly earlier this year. Considering that there are still a slew of similar flicks set to hit screen this year, this could bode poorly for their various producers. Although, again, given how generally cheap these films are made, and the various auxiliary markets, it’s hard to see any of them actually losing money in the end.
[*This has set off another round of Nerd Kibitzing, with the gorehound set up in arms at the idea that PG-13 horror films might be coming back into vogue. In true dweeb tradition, many seem to be sniffing that sans a hard R rating, a movie Isn’t Really horror. Personally, I’d think the market would be big enough for both creepier, generally PG-13 horror and the harder, gore-suffused stuff, but there you go.]In close third was FF2, which tumbled a scary 66% off its initial weekend total. Making $20m, it’s now close to the hundred million dollar mark, but again is presumably hoping for a far stronger overseas tally. Again, this seems like a truly blown opportunity, given how easy it would have been to make a film that was better than the first one.
In fact, it’s been awhile since there’s been a really satisfying superhero movie, back to Batman Begins and Spider-Man 2, I’d say. People so far continue to have some interest in this sort of films, as evidenced by the decent tallies for the less than awesome Spider-Man 3 and Ghost Rider. However, it’s only a matter of time until viewers get fed up with mediocre or worse picture. If the genre is to keep chugging along better films are going to have to surface. Hopefully next year’s skein of Iron Man, Hulk and Batman movies will fill the bill.
Fourth place went to yet another sequel (good grief), the comedic buddy heist film Ocean’s Thirteen. At about $11m for the weekend, it was down a fairly modest 42%, meaning it might well cross the hundred million dollar mark and in the end steal around$125m. It’s not doing as well as the first film, but slightly better than the second.
The summer’s sleeper hit is the previously mentioned Knocked Up, which has evinced strong legs with a 30% in its third frame. Delivering (har, har) $11m, it has raised a healthy box office brood of $110m so far. Considering its modest $30 production budget, and reaping some of the strongest reviews of the year, the film is a major hit.
Pirate 3 drew another $7.2m, with a total booty of $287m so far. It seems likely to cross that $300m mark at some point, which can be added to an eventual overseas total of over $600m. In the end, the film should come pretty close to hitting the ONE BILLION DOLLAR mark. This means it will probably end up beating the worldwide take of Spider-Man 3, which should hover closer to $900m.
